Forest fires in Algeria are mostly human-caused and result from local social behavior, whether voluntary (arson) or involuntary (negligence). Understanding the reasons why fires start is, therefore, a crucial factor in preventing or reducing their incidence, developing significant prevention efforts and designing specific fire prevention campaigns. The Delphi method is a promising tool for improving knowledge about how fire starts and why, and above all helps reduce the number of fires started by unknown causes, the majority type in Algeria. The Delphi method uses a set of procedures for eliciting and refining the opinions of a panel of experts on a particular subject of interest. This method was used in three case studies, in coastal or inner
Fire is the main cause of forest destruction in the countries of the Mediterranean Basin. About 50 000 fires sweep through 700 000 to 1 million hectares of Mediterranean forests, wooded lands and other land types each year, causing large economical and ecological damage, as well as loss of human life (
The southern rim of the Mediterranean Basin is characterized by fewer forest fires than the northern one, but its forests are under the growing threat of climatic changes and vigorously increasing human pressure, particularly near the coastal areas where populations concentrate, thus increasing the demand for fuel, meat, food and new lands for urban growth. This translates into higher pressure on degraded wooded lands, coupled with unsustainable overexploitation for fuel wood and overgrazing (
Algeria has a long history of forest fires. National fire statistics cover about 160 years, dating back to 1853. Statistics show a severe depletion of forest resources: for example, from 1876-1962 (87 years), fires have affected 3 506 942 hectares (
The recorded causes in the fire data do not reflect reality. In Algeria, it is commonly accepted that at least half of the fires attributed to unknown causes are either arson or security fires, which are purposely set by the Algerian Army as a counter terrorism measure, making it a rather difficult topic to address. These fires are listed under unknown causes either because the arsonist was not arrested or because conclusive evidence of arson was not found (
The Delphi method was originally developed in the 1950s for a US sponsored military project (
The Delphi method is an iterative process used to collect and distill the informed judgments of experts (
Anonymity of Delphi participants: allows participants to freely express their opinions without undue social pressures to conform to others in the group. Decisions are evaluated on their merit, rather than on who has proposed the idea.
Iteration: allows participants to refine their views in light of the progress of the group’s work from round to round.
Controlled feedback: informs participants of the other participant’s perspectives and provides the opportunity for Delphi participants to clarify or change their views.
Statistical aggregation of group response: allows for a quantitative analysis and interpretation of data.
The Delphi method has four distinct phases (
Phase 1 explores the issue under discussion, with each individual contributing pertinent information and opinions;
Phase 2 involves obtaining feedback on the issue and reaching an understanding of how the group views it - where the panel members agree or disagree;
Phase 3 deals with disagreements and the underlying reasons for differences;
Phase 4 the information is analyzed and there is a convergence of opinion.
In the field of forest fires, the Delphi method has been used to explore the current state of wild land fire communication (
The study area consists of three north-central Algeria
At the national level, Tizi Ouzou is among the three most affected
All study areas are mountainous territories with a typical Mediterranean climate pattern, where hot and dry summers are a predisposing fire factor. The physical conditions are favorable to forest and/or agro-sylvo-pastoral suitability in a balanced framework. Forest types range from the wide forested complexes of Aleppo pine high forest of Bouira to the small surfaces of decimated forests of Boumerdes, represented mainly by Mediterranean maquis and some Aleppo pine forests, to some wide cork oak high forests in Tizi Ouzou. In many cases, degradation of such areas reflects a population accustomed to using forest as a “free-for-all”, with little concern for forest preservation (
The selection of Delphi participants directly influences the quality of the final results. Participants (or experts) in a Delphi study must have the background and experience concerning the target issue, be capable of helpful inputs, and be ready to revise their judgments (
knowledge and experience with the issues under investigation;
capacity and willingness to participate;
time to participate;
communication skills.
The experts involved in our forest fires Delphi survey are the non commissioned forest fire officers of the State Forestry Service working for the country General Directorate of Forests (DGF), an agency of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development. These professionals are trained and competent within the specialized area of knowledge under investigation. They are actually involved in compiling yearly forest fire statistics, which have been produced since the mid 1980s (Law 84 of 23/06/1984). Based on those statistics, funds for forest fire fighting are allocated to the most affected
The three panels of experts included a total of 141 respondents. The number of experts is well balanced among areas and, in addition, their number is well above the minimum of at least 10 (
Structured questioning was achieved through the use of
As a first interesting result, the frequency of illegal garbage dumping and burning, and the problem of fire restarts are very important in our study areas. Experts mention them as the most important causes 88% and 85% of the time, respectively (
Garbage burning is related to the high population density of the study areas and is, in general, a cause of general concern for Algeria (
Within the category of causes of voluntary fires, defined as “the inner drive, reason or incentive that induces or prompts a specific behavior” (
The experts considered only 11 out of 29 possible causes initially presented to them. The remaining 18 causes appear rather scattered, with few cases for each; results confirm the absolute unimportance of natural fires in the Algeria wildfires problem. One possible explanation for the importance of the traditional agricultural use of fire as a source of wildfires is that farmers use it not only to eliminate crop stubble, but more importantly to push back the forest to make room for agricultural expansion. Thus, fires started in cultivated fields easily spread to nearby forests (
We must preface this section by stating that the results of the study represent only the collective, informed opinion of the experts participating in the Delphi Panel, but that, at this time, there is no alternative mean to produce better information. Forest fire in itself is not a problem, but an intrinsic factor of ecosystem disturbances when it develops within its natural regime. However, it is also a cultural tool used in all traditional rural societies for multiple purposes, including land management. Its improper use is the most conditioning factor for Mediterranean forest management and a symptom of serious social and territorial problems of the forest system in many cases. Considering that human action is the main cause of fires in Algeria, knowing the causes of fires is a crucial factor in designing policies and programs for wildfire prevention. Prevention requires a shift in the approach to fire fighting from fire suppression, based mainly on investments for emergency measures, to a long-term policy of removing the structural causes of fire starts (
We thank all experts (foresters) that graciously accepted to participate in this study and the two anonymous reviewers for their careful reading of the paper and their helpful comments. We also thank Dr. Armando González-Cabán, USDA Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station, Riverside, CA, USA who helped improve the quality and readability of the revised manuscript and Dr. Kristy L. Schuster for accurate text revision.
Map of the studied areas.
Number of fires and burned area in north-central Algeria (1985-2010).
Increasing frequency of most relevant motives (all areas included).
Forest fires in Southern Europe and Algeria (1985-2010). Source:
Country | Burnt surface per yr (ha) | Number of fires per yr |
---|---|---|
Algeria | 35 025 | 1 637 |
France | 21 323 | 3 771 |
Greece | 32 856 | 1 308 |
Italy | 77 262 | 7 867 |
Portugal | 101 166 | 16 578 |
Spain | 132 305 | 13 740 |
Forest fire causes through time in Algeria (in %). (n/a): not available.
Causes/Reference | 1866-1915Marc (1916) | 1886-1945Boudy (1952) | 1979-1982Rebai (1982) |
---|---|---|---|
Natural | n/a | n/a | n/a |
Accidental | 8 | n/a | n/a |
Negligence | 32 | 50 | 27 |
Voluntary | 23 | 20 | 16 |
Unknown | 37 | 30 | 57 |
The most relevant indicators for the study areas. (*): Only 10 municipalities on the South exhibit desertification risk.
Indicator/ |
Bouira | Boumerdes | Tizi Ouzou |
---|---|---|---|
Position | Inner area | Coastal area | Coastal area |
Surface (ha) | 446 745 | 145 616 | 295 793 |
Forested area (ha) | 94 049 | 26 614 | 65 680 |
Forest (ha) | 74 608(79.3 %) | 4 144(15.57 %) | 48 635(76 %) |
Mediterranean maquis (ha) | 18 042(19.2 %) | 21 659(81.38 %) | 13 957(22 %) |
Plantations (ha) | 1 399(1.5 %) | 811(3.05 %) | 1 501(2 %) |
Forestry ratio | 12 % | 18% | 22 % |
Forest fires (average nr per year 1985-2010) | 97 | 70 | 145 |
Burned surface (average ha per year) | 991 | 629 | 2 956 |
Burned surface in % of forested area (1985-2010) | 1.5 | 2.36 | 4.5 |
Sheep number | 235 000 | 60 430 | 164 695 |
Goats number | 26 000 | 7 554 | 51 789 |
Cows number (Bovins) | 67 500 | 29 555 | 90 908 |
Total livestock | 328 500 | 97 539 | 307 392 |
Livestock per km2 | 74 | 72 | 86 |
Nr. of |
45 | 32 | 67 |
Population | 728 290 | 801 068 | 1 133 349 |
Urban population | 236 501 | 458 745 | 490 610 |
Rural population | 491 789 | 342 323 | 643 188 |
Population density (people per km2) | 163.02 | 551.36 | 381.22 |
Land-use | Agriculture, forestry, pastoralism | Agriculture, forestry | Forestry, pastoralism |
Relief | Rugged and rough territory | Coastal plane 60%, mountain 40% | Mountain 70%, coastal plane 30% |
Erosion risk | Medium stability | Medium stability | Medium stability |
Desertification risk | partial * | absent | absent |
Study areas and fire causes in order of decreasing frequency. (N): number of experts.
Bouira (N = 41)Main motives | Frequency(%) | Boumerdes (N = 47)Main motives | Frequency(%) | Tizi Ouzou (N = 53)Main motives | Frequency(%) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Restart of fire | 97.55 | Agricultural works (burning of cut bush, stubble burning) | 95.74 | Illegal garbage dumping and burning | 90.56 |
Cigarette remains | 95.11 | Restart of fire | 93.62 | Restart of fire | 84.9 |
Illegal garbage dumping and burning | 92.67 | Forest works (burning of cut bush) | 82.98 | Agricultural works (burning of cut bush, stubble burning) | 75.58 |
Interest in land use changes | 92.67 | Illegal garbage dumping and burning | 80.84 | Cigarette remains | 75.46 |
Agricultural works (burning of cut bush, stubble burning) | 92.67 | Interest in land use changes | 80.84 | Forest works (burning of cut bush) | 73.58 |
Pasture renewal | 87.88 | Pasture renewal | 78.71 | Pyromania | 67.38 |
Wild honey gathering | 87.79 | Cigarette remains | 72.34 | Interest in land use changes | 62.37 |
Conflicts related to wildland ownership | 82.92 | Cigarette remains | 72.34 | Cigarette remains | 62.25 |
Rank-ordering (1 to 8) of most frequent fire causes in study areas.
Rank-Order | Bouira | Boumerdes | Tizi Ouzou |
---|---|---|---|
1 | Agricultural works (burning of cut bush, stubble burning) | Agricultural works (burning of cut bush, stubble burning) | Agricultural works (burning of cut bush, stubble burning) |
2 | Cigarette remains | Restart of fire | Illegal garbage dumping and burning |
3 | Illegal garbage dumping and burning | Forest works (burning of cut bush) | Interests in land use changes |
4 | Pastoralism | Illegal garbage dumping and burning | Cigarette remains |
5 | Interests in land use changes | Cigarette remains | Restart of fire |
6 | Wild honey gathering | Interests in land use changes | Forest works (burning of cut bush) |
7 | Restart of fire | Pastoralism | Pyromania |
8 | Conflicts related to wild land ownership | Wild honey gathering | Conflicts related to forest policy |
List of forest fire causes identified for Algeria, divided into three main categories: accidental, negligent, and deliberate.