iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry


Diurnal surface fuel moisture prediction model for Calabrian pine stands in Turkey

Ertugrul Bilgili (1), Kadir Alperen Coskuner (1), Yetkin Usta (1)   , Bulent Saglam (2), Omer Kucuk (3), Tolga Berber (4), Merih Goltas (5)

iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry, Volume 12, Issue 3, Pages 262-271 (2019)
doi: https://doi.org/10.3832/ifor2870-012
Published: May 03, 2019 - Copyright © 2019 SISEF

Research Articles

This study presents a dynamic model for the prediction of diurnal changes in the moisture content of dead surface fuels in normally stocked Calabrian pine stands under varying weather conditions. The model was developed based on several empirical relationships between moisture contents of dead surface fuels and weather variables, and calibrated using field data collected from three Calabrian stands from three different regions of Turkey (Mugla, southwest; Antalya, south; Trabzon, north-east). The model was tested and validated with independent measurements of fuel moisture from two sets of field observations made during dry and rainy periods. Model predictions showed a mean absolute error (MAE) of 1.19% for litter and 0.90% for duff at Mugla, and 3.62% for litter and 14.38% for duff at Antalya. When two rainy periods were excluded from the analysis at Antalya site, the MAE decreased from 14.38% to 4.29% and R2 increased from 0.25 to 0.83 for duff fuels. Graphical inspection and statistical validation of the model indicated that the diurnal litter and duff moisture dynamics could be predicted reasonably. The model can easily be adapted for other similar fuel types in the Mediterranean region.


Fuel Moisture Content, Modeling, Drying Rate, Vapor Pressure Deficit

Authors’ address

Ertugrul Bilgili 0000-0003-1006-4991
Kadir Alperen Coskuner 0000-0001-5249-1604
Yetkin Usta 0000-0002-0504-6417
Karadeniz Technical University, Faculty of Forestry, 61080 Trabzon (Turkey)
Bulent Saglam
Artvin Coruh University, Faculty of Forestry, 08000 Artvin (Turkey)
Omer Kucuk 0000-0003-2639-8195
Kastamonu University, Faculty of Forestry, 37200 Kastamonu (Turkey)
Tolga Berber
Karadeniz Technical University, Faculty of Science, 61080 Trabzon (Turkey)
Merih Goltas
Istanbul University, Faculty of Forestry, 34100 Istanbul (Turkey)

Corresponding author

Yetkin Usta


Bilgili E, Coskuner KA, Usta Y, Saglam B, Kucuk O, Berber T, Goltas M (2019). Diurnal surface fuel moisture prediction model for Calabrian pine stands in Turkey. iForest 12: 262-271. - doi: 10.3832/ifor2870-012

Academic Editor

Davide Ascoli

Paper history

Received: May 29, 2018
Accepted: Feb 27, 2019

First online: May 03, 2019
Publication Date: Jun 30, 2019
Publication Time: 2.17 months

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