Predicting impacts of climate change on forest tree species of Bangladesh: evidence from threatened Dysoxylum binectariferum (Roxb.) Hook.f. ex Bedd. (Meliaceae)

doi:10.3832/ifor1608-009

Predicting impacts of climate change on forest tree species of Bangladesh: evidence from threatened Dysoxylum binectariferum (Roxb.) Hook.f. ex Bedd. (Meliaceae)

Shawkat Islam Sohel⁽¹⁾ , Sayma Akhter^(2-6), Hadayet Ullah⁽³⁾, Ekramul Haque⁽⁴⁾, Parvez Rana⁽⁶⁾

iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry, Volume 10, Issue 1, Pages 154-160 (2016)
doi: https://doi.org/10.3832/ifor1608-009
Published: May 25, 2016 - Copyright © 2016 SISEF

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Geo-mapping

The impact of climate change on ecosystems, especially at the species level, can be currently observed in many parts of the world. Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to predict the likely changes in the distribution of species in future climate change scenarios. The aim of the present study is to predict the effect of climate change on a valuable threatened tree species Dysoxylum binectariferum in the northeastern part of Bangladesh using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model on species’ occurrence data. The future distribution of D. binectariferum was predicted under two scenarios from the IPCC 5^th assessment (RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5) in 2050 and 2070. Model results showed that approximately 32% (2177 km²) of the studied area is currently suitable for this species to grow. However, future predictions obtained by the model projected a complete loss of suitable habitat for D. binectariferum in the studied area by both 2050 and 2070. Therefore, urgent measures are required for the conservation of D. binectariferum in northeastern Bangladesh. The application of species distribution models to simple inventory data (such as the occurrence of the species) may provide policymakers and conservationists with a useful tool for the prediction of future distribution (at both local and regional scales) of poorly known species with high preservation concerns.

Keywords

Habitat Distribution Modeling, Potential Distribution Areas, Reintroduction, MaxEnt, Conservation

Authors’ address

(1)

School of Agriculture and Food Science, The University of Queensland (Australia)

(2)

School of Environment, Natural Resources and Geography, Bangor University (UK)

(3)

School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Adelaide (Australia)

(4)

Department of Forestry and Environmental Science, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology (Bangladesh)

(5)

School of Forest Sciences, University of Eastern Finland (Finland)

(6)

Faculty of Life Science, University of Copenhagen (Denmark)

Corresponding author

Shawkat Islam Sohel
m.sohel@uq.edu.au

Citation

Sohel SI, Akhter S, Ullah H, Haque E, Rana P (2016). Predicting impacts of climate change on forest tree species of Bangladesh: evidence from threatened Dysoxylum binectariferum (Roxb.) Hook.f. ex Bedd. (Meliaceae). iForest 10: 154-160. - doi: 10.3832/ifor1608-009

Academic Editor

Rupert Seidl

Paper history

Received: Feb 19, 2015
Accepted: Jan 20, 2016

First online: May 25, 2016
Publication Date: Feb 28, 2017
Publication Time: 4.20 months

Open Access

This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.

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